Sensex week ahead: FOMC, MPC minutes, oil price key indicators

The Indian stock market displayed resilience during the past week, bouncing back by over 1% despite uncertainties surrounding the onset of a rate cut cycle and net outflows from foreign institutional investors. The positive sentiment was fueled by a slew of factors including the conclusion of Q3FY24 earnings on a positive note, declining inflation figures, and robust buying across key sectors such as banking, technology, oil & gas, energy, and auto. Additionally, consistent support from domestic institutional investors added further buoyancy to the market.

Analysts are increasingly optimistic about the continuation of this positive momentum into the upcoming week, albeit with intermittent phases of consolidation and correction. The market is closely eyeing key developments including the release of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings, fluctuations in US bond yields, and broader global cues.

Notably, the prospect of a pre-election rally has gained traction among some experts, following encouraging pre-poll surveys indicating a comfortable majority for the incumbent BJP-led NDA government.

During the past week, the BSE Sensex surged by 1.16% to reach 72,427, while the Nifty 50 climbed 1.19% to touch 22,041. However, the broader markets witnessed mixed performance with the Nifty Midcap 100 index gaining marginally while the Smallcap 100 index registered a slight decline.

Looking ahead, market sentiment is anticipated to receive further impetus from key events such as the release of FOMC minutes, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, and updates on global economic data including manufacturing & services PMI figures, US job data, and Europe's inflation numbers.

Domestically, investors will closely scrutinize the RBI's monetary policy meeting minutes for insights into any potential shifts in policy stance, particularly towards a neutral stance from the current accommodative stance.

Foreign institutional investors' (FIIs) flow remains a critical factor influencing market dynamics, with recent net selling observed amid increased US bond yields. The trajectory of oil prices, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and compliance with supply cuts by OPEC members will also be closely monitored for their impact on market sentiment.

In the primary market, investor attention will be drawn to upcoming IPOs including Juniper Hotels and GPT Healthcare, along with the debut of Vibhor Steel Tubes on the bourses.

From a technical standpoint, the Nifty 50 appears robust, supported by sustained upward momentum and healthy volumes. Key support and resistance levels are expected to guide market movements in the near term.

Options data suggest that the 22,000 mark holds significance for the Nifty 50, with further resistance seen at 22,100 and 22,300 levels. India VIX, a measure of market volatility, closed lower, providing some relief to bullish sentiments.

Disclaimer: Please seek advice from a market expert to assess these key indicators thoroughly.